PNNL

Abstract

Critical infrastructures such as power grids have become increasingly complex, connected, and vulnerable to adverse scenarios, including cyber and physical attacks and faults. Effective risk mitigation for such cyber-physical energy systems (CPES), requires preemptive knowledge of likely adversarial attack scenarios. Hybrid Attack Graph (HAG) is a structured way to represent an adversarial scenario as an attack sequence using a threat model. However, the scarcity of documented attack sequences hinders analysts and CPES planners’ ability to identify credible attack scenarios for a given CPES. We propose a data-driven Graph Convolutional Deep-Q Network (GCDQ) to address this data challenge through generating HAGs. By leveraging limited real-world observations from the MITRE ATT&CK knowledge base, our GCDQ model synthesizes realistic graphs with the targeted attribute of minimum detectability via reinforcement learning. This generative model is the first step in creating a tool to substantially boost the attack sequence dataset and enhance the performance of CPS defense-related tasks by providing insights into likely attack sequences with given attributes.