PNNL

Abstract

As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5?C, joint leadership from the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters—the United States and China—will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action. After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy, these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action. In this context, a feasible, high-impact, and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S. and China to phase out coal would be a major contribution toward this global effort. Coal phaseout would also deliver immediate, low-cost reductions in emissions in both countries with significant domestic benefits. It also can raise expectations and catalyze a global coal-phasedown on a rapid timeline. We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical pathways for a 2030 coal phaseout in the U.S. and a 2045 coal phaseout in China in line with national priorities and the global 1.5?C target. We demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions, lowering overall global energy-related CO2 emissions by nearly 8% in 2030 relative to 2020. A catalytic effect from the possibility of other country phaseout announcements is also estimated.