PNNL

Abstract

Low-carbon technologies ranging from wind power to electric vehicles are underpinned by the strong permanent magnets (PMs), the function of which relies heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and other risky rare earth elements (REEs). Given that China is being the world's large REE supplier with abundant minerals, the impact of such an ambitious carbon-neutral transition on China’s Dy supply chains has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and innovation strategies associated with the Dy and PMs linkage under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2-3 decades to facilitate the carbon-neutrality transition. By implementing global available innovation strategies such as material substitution, reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid between 48%-68% of China's cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, the ongoing efforts in REE exploration and production are still required to bridge China’s Dy demand gap, which will face competition from the United States, European Union and other climate mitigating nations. Thus, our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation in REE supply chains as well as PMs innovation for the realization of a global climate-safe future.