PNNL

Abstract

Steel production is highly CO2-emissions-intensive, posing a significant challenge for economy-wide deep decarbonization. Emerging technologies involving hydrogen or carbon capture could abate steel sector emissions, particularly alongside energy and material efficiency measures and increased steel scrap recycling. However, the potential of these mitigation strategies has not been assessed globally, while also considering the sector’s role within broader economic and environmental systems. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to evaluate global and regional steel sector transition pathways consistent with limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5°C. We find that rapid deployment of efficiency measures and low carbon technologies mitigates the risk of stranded assets and reduces near- and medium-term steel sector emissions, beyond levels found in prior studies. Material efficiency improvements and carbon capture contribute most to steel emissions reductions worldwide. Our results highlight the tradeoffs associated with different steel sector transition pathways and their implications for overall decarbonization efforts.