SGM
The Second Generation Model (SGM) is a collection of 14 regional computable general equilibrium models with an emphasis on energy transformation and consumption, economic activity, and greenhouse gas emissions. The SGM projects economic activity, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for each region in five-year time steps from 1990 through 2050. The SGM contains a large set of parameters to simulate technical change over time for any given production process. These parameters, individualized to production processes, influence the rate of change in efficiency of the inputs to production sectors in the model. The structure of the model resolves five issues: regional detail, energy sector detail, scope of human activities, temporal resolution, and theoretical description. Regional detail includes both individual countries and regional groupings. Many of the regional models, including Japan, China, India, South Korea and Brazil, were developed in collaboration with local institutions using local data. This approach has extended the value of the SGM for all users.
The SGM was designed to run either as an individual national (or regional) model, or as a set of models with trade links. The model uses 23 producing sectors, 25 consuming sectors, energy production detail, 12 regions, and a suite of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, all shown in Table 2. The model couples the vintaged capital stock with a "putty-semi-putty" representation. Thus, not only is the capital stock fixed once an investment is made, but the elasticity of substitution among other inputs may be reduced. The model was developed with recognition that energy production and use is the most important set of human activities associated with greenhouse gas emissions. The SGM employs a finite resource model with production out of reserves. Both reserves and resources are graded. The models that link with the SGM to produce a full set of impacts analysis are shown in Table 3. Output from the SGM is often summarized as a set of marginal abatement cost curves that show the relationship between a carbon price and emissions reduction relative to a baseline.
| Table 2. SGM Model Inputs | ||
|---|---|---|
| Producing Sectors | ||
| 1. Other Agriculture 2. Everything Else 3. Oil Production 4. Gas Production 5. Coal Production 6. Coal Products 7. Biomass 8. Electricity Production 8.1 Oil-Fired 8.2 Gas-Fired 8.3 Coal-Fired 8.4 Nuclear 8.5 Hydro 8.6 Biomass 8.7 Solar & Wind |
9. Oil Refining 10. Gas Distribution 11. Paper and Pulp 12. Chemicals 13. Cement 14. Primary Metals 15. Food Processing 16. Other Industry 17. Passenger Transport 17.1 Automobile 17.2 Railway 17.3 Sea 17.4 Air |
18. Freight Transport 18.1 Truck 18.2, Railway 18.3 Sea 18.4 Air 19. Residential Building Energy Services 20. Commercial Building Energy Services 21. Grains and Oil Crops 22. Animal Products 23. Forestry |
| Consuming Sectors | ||
| A household sector, a government sector, and the 23 producing sectors noted above | ||
| Regions | ||
| United States, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, Former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, India, Mexico, South Korea, and Rest of World. | ||
| Greenhouse Gases | ||
| CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and N2O | ||
| Table 3: PGCAM Modules | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Institutional Affiliation | Description | Inputs & Outputs | References |
| SGM | PNNL | The SGM is a computable general equilibrium model of energy, economic activities, and greenhouse emissions. | Inputs: factor productivity growth rates by sector (9 in SGM 98) and region; capital stocks by vintage, demographic determinants (endogenous demographics), fossil and non-fossil fuel resources; Outputs: Energy supplies and demands by fuel (6 primary, 4 final) and region (12), greenhouse gas emissions, and economic activity. Temporal Resolution: 5-year time step. Spatial Resolution: 12 regions |
Edmonds, Pitcher, Barnes, Baron, and Wise (1995); Fisher-Vanden et al. (1993); Sands et al. (1998); Sands et al. (2002). |
| EPIC | Texas A&M | Simulates crop growth and yield, runoff, erosion, and water quality | Inputs: Temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, soil type, and topography. Outputs: Crop yields, erosion Temporal Resolution: Daily |
Williams (1995) |
| HUMUS | Texas A&M | Simulates hydrologic cycle on scales varying from major river basins to local watersheds. | Inputs: Same as EPIC (see above) plus current land use. Outputs: evaporation, runof Temporal Resolution: Daily |
Arnold et al., 1999; Srinivasan et al. (1993) |
| BIOME-3 | U of Lund, Sweden | Simulates vegetation coverage and productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. | Inputs: Temperature, precipitation, soil type. Outputs: Vegetation coverage, crop productivity Temporal Resolution: NA (steady-state) Spatial Resolution: 0.5o x 0.5o |
Haxeltine and Prentice (1996) |