Agricultural Productivity Movies
These figures show the production of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions. Production is measured as crop yield in tons per hectare. The baseline maps show the average yield using the historical climate of 1960-1990 as simulated by the EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model. We also simulated crop production under future climate as projected by the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM2) for two periods centered on the years 2030 and 2095. These maps show the change in crop yield from the baseline condition under those climate changes. Corn production in 2030 shows some moderate increases of < 1 ton/ha but also some areas of decline in crop yield of > 3 ton/ha. In the 2095 period, corn production increases across the northern section of it's growing region, while declining along the southern coastal regions. For winter wheat, a similar pattern is seen with production declines in the 2030 period and some increases mixed with the declines in the 2095 period. These patterns of change are a result of the changing precipitation projected by the HadCM2 model. Also in the 2095 period, increasing temperatures are beneficial to the corn crop in the northern regions. In addition, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are higher in the 2095 period, and this results in a "fertilization effect" simulated by the EPIC model.
This work was initially done for the US Global Change Research Program National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change. It has been published in two manuscripts by Izaurralde et al. (2003) and Rosenberg et al. (2003). These are available from the Joint Global Change Research Institute.
Rosenberg, NJ, RC Izaurralde, RA Brown and AM Thomson, 2003. "Integrated Assessment of Hadley Centre(HadCM2) Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Agricultural Productivity in the Conterminous United States. I Climate change scenarios and impacts on water resources simulated with the HUMUS model" Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 117(2003): 73-96.
Izaurralde, R.C., NJ Rosenberg, RA Brown and AM Thomson, 2003. "Integrated Assessment of Hadley Centre(HadCM2) Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Agricultural Productivity in the Conterminous United States. II Regional Agricultural Production in 2030 and 2095" Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117(2003):97-122