“Let’s Make a Deal”; Bayes’ rule

P(in box 2 | box 1 empty) =

P(box 1 empty | in box 2)P(in box 2)

??P(box 1 empty) = (1/6) ??(1/2) = 1/3

Unchanged!

Monte Hall’s information has no value

—about box 2, but it affects box 3!

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