“Let’s Make a Deal”; P(data)

Under above assumptions:

P(box 1 empty) =

P(box 1 empty | in box 1)P(in box 1)

+ P(box 1 empty | in box 2)P(in box 2)

+ P(box 1 empty | in box 3)P(in box 3)

= 0x1/3 + (1/2)x1/3 + 1x1/3 = 1/2

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