Example 5.15:“Let’s Make a Deal”

• Choice of three boxes

  • One contains key to Lincoln Continental.
  • Other two are empty.
  • Contestant chooses box 2.

• P(win) = 1/3

• Monte Hall opens box 1 and shows it’s empty. Only 2 possibilities; he claims

P(win | box 1 empty) = 1/2

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