Why formal theorem for learning?

• Data: Of 5 selections w/o replacement, 1 is Red, 4 are Green

• Suppose P(urn 1) = P(urn 2) = 1/2

• GUESS: P(urn 1 | Data) = ?

Quiz: Have 2 urns:

90 R’s

10 G’s

95 R’s

5 G’s

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